Simulation modeling of the effects of oil spills on population dynamics of northern fur seals
Reed, M., D. French, J. Calambokidis, and J. Cubbage. 1987. Simulation modeling of the effects of oil spills on population dynamics of northern fur seals. Final report for OCS Study MMS 86-0045 for Minerals Management Service, Anchorage, Alaska. 158pp.
Population dynamics and migration models were developed and combined with an oil-spill simulation model to determine the effects of oil spills on the Pribilof Island fur seal (Callorhinus ursinus) population. In the population-dynamics model, mortality of pups on land and juveniles up to two years of age is density dependent, while that of older seals is age- and sex-specific and constant at all population sizes. Movement patterns of seals within the Bering Sea are functions of date, sexual status, and age. Two hypothetical 10,000 barrel oil spill simulations were performed. Depending on the assumed oil-induced mortality rate in the range 25%-100%, effective recovery of the population from these spills, i.e., the number of years before the oil-affected population numbers, took 0 to 25 years.